Winter weather finally arriving, but will it be enough this year?

        We are finally seeing some winter weather pushing into our region, which is goo news for our drought stricken rivers. The not so good news is the size of the storms are falling apart. Lets keep our fingers crossed that they continue to flow this way.
        
       This year is off to a much different start than last winter. Our mountains are much whiter than last Thanksgiving. However, in terms of total precip, we aren't much better off yet. Its very hard to predict what winter will hold for our region, but there are some predictions out there right now, here they are:
                   
                     -  El Nino is still likely in play, but it will be a weak El Nino
                     -  GFS models are indicating a 200% December for the California/      
                         Sierra region
                      - Our winter is likely to be an 85-95%, if El Nino really kicks in, 
                        as high as  125%
                       
      Although none of this is fact, things look very mixed right now. A nice trough has set up, looking to bring a big storm in mid week this week, hopefully delivering 2ft of wet snow to the mountains. Then it looks as though a ridge of high pressure will build back in for a week or so. After that, it appears we will get more storms. At this point,as much as im trying to be optimistic, things aren't look wonderful. The bright side is, we almost definitely wont be as bad as the 35% winter we had last season!!
      
       Keep your hopes us, our fisheries will surely be impacted by yet another dry winter. A 100% winter will at least hold us over one more year, and spare the majority of rivers/ lakes from total loss. a 120% or greater will get us moving in the right direction. a 200% winter would be our silver bullet, but don't hold your breath for that one. Anything less than a 90% winter though, spells catastrophic results. A bad winter, will likely mean a total, or near total loss of the Truckee river, the East walker river, many lakes will be in danger, like Frenchmans, Boca, Prosser, Stampede, and S
pooner, and im sure many more.

     Feel free to leave your predictions, and lets see if they come true in the spring! put the % you think we will end up at!